Select Page

Markets: Housing Reality vs. Pivot Fantasy

Good morning!! We hosted a webinar last week to outline our bearish views on equities. All of our tools argue that the move we are seeing in equities is a lower-rates temporary relief rally. Why has it been such a monster bear market rally? Probably because of how...

The Three Cycles: PMIs, CPI and Claims

I am running out but wanted to send this chart your way – I wanted to address, again, the narrative that peak CPI will be the end of the bear market. In the past, market bottoms have only occurred at a peak in CPI when PMIs and Claims simultaneously began to improve...

What’s Next After The Lower-Rates Relief Rally?

Happy Friday Daniel, We have high conviction in our views and have held off on the “get very defensive” phase of our market-cycle call. For the past few months, we’ve recommended growth stocks > cyclicals as our #1 recommendation. That’s playing out very nicely,...

Your Local Bank Is Now Joining The Tightening Party

Good evening!!! While everybody is focused on the END of Fed tightening, your local bank is just beginning to tighten lending standards. We have central banks because banks tighten lending standards as the economy weakens. In the first chart below, we’ve plotted the...

Consensus: It’s A New Bull Market?

Had to share this chart with you ..."new bull market" news has skyrocketed. We would be thinking about trimming rather than adding here. Bear market rallies are violent, and kill bulls and bears alike as we all know. We continue to prefer quality growth stocks if you...

ISM Preview; Growth Leadership Continues; July Skies

Happy Sunday!! We’re expecting the “is it the bottom?” debate to only heat up for the rest of 2022. To reiterate our view – we do not think we’ll see the bottom in the broader indices until we’re closer to leading economic indicators bottom sometime next year. For the...

This Isn’t 1982

I've received 3 emails from clients this morning, and a handful of tweets directed towards me that there is another bullish strategist talking about how this is a repeat of 1982 and that the market is going to skyrocket from here, recouping the entire bear market in a...

Is This The Bottom?

The debate about the future direction of the market is heating up. We've now seen 4 bear market rallies. One of the observations that we've made in recent months is that bear market rallies grow larger as the bear market grows older. Whether the Fed is close to being...

So You’re Telling Me There Is A Chance?!

This is the first chart I’ve seen this year that shows that the data can improve from here, at least relative to expectations. Some of you may remember this chart when we’ve published in years past. Will economic surprises begin to rebound? Will markets react...

Fed: Here’s What We’ll Be Watching Today …

Today is Fed day – as a reminder Roberto & Benson will be hosting a webinar TODAY at 2:15pm ET to discuss the Fed LIVE! Click Here to Register. In today’s morning meeting, macro salesperson Jay Glickson asked us how the Fed’s decision will impact our outlook –...

Markets: Housing Reality vs. Pivot Fantasy

Good morning!! We hosted a webinar last week to outline our bearish views on equities. All of our tools argue that the move we are seeing in equities is a lower-rates temporary relief rally. Why has it been such a monster bear market rally? Probably because of how large the selloff was that...

read more

The Three Cycles: PMIs, CPI and Claims

I am running out but wanted to send this chart your way – I wanted to address, again, the narrative that peak CPI will be the end of the bear market. In the past, market bottoms have only occurred at a peak in CPI when PMIs and Claims simultaneously began to improve as well. Too many people are...

read more

What’s Next After The Lower-Rates Relief Rally?

Happy Friday Daniel, We have high conviction in our views and have held off on the “get very defensive” phase of our market-cycle call. For the past few months, we’ve recommended growth stocks > cyclicals as our #1 recommendation. That’s playing out very nicely, but it’s time to think about...

read more

Your Local Bank Is Now Joining The Tightening Party

Good evening!!! While everybody is focused on the END of Fed tightening, your local bank is just beginning to tighten lending standards. We have central banks because banks tighten lending standards as the economy weakens. In the first chart below, we’ve plotted the ISM New Orders Index (48)...

read more

Consensus: It’s A New Bull Market?

Had to share this chart with you ..."new bull market" news has skyrocketed. We would be thinking about trimming rather than adding here. Bear market rallies are violent, and kill bulls and bears alike as we all know. We continue to prefer quality growth stocks if you are long or long/short. Avoid...

read more

ISM Preview; Growth Leadership Continues; July Skies

Happy Sunday!! We’re expecting the “is it the bottom?” debate to only heat up for the rest of 2022. To reiterate our view – we do not think we’ll see the bottom in the broader indices until we’re closer to leading economic indicators bottom sometime next year. For the past several months, we’ve...

read more

This Isn’t 1982

I've received 3 emails from clients this morning, and a handful of tweets directed towards me that there is another bullish strategist talking about how this is a repeat of 1982 and that the market is going to skyrocket from here, recouping the entire bear market in a few months. While I don't pay...

read more

Is This The Bottom?

The debate about the future direction of the market is heating up. We've now seen 4 bear market rallies. One of the observations that we've made in recent months is that bear market rallies grow larger as the bear market grows older. Whether the Fed is close to being finished tightening, or they...

read more

So You’re Telling Me There Is A Chance?!

This is the first chart I’ve seen this year that shows that the data can improve from here, at least relative to expectations. Some of you may remember this chart when we’ve published in years past. Will economic surprises begin to rebound? Will markets react positively? Maybe!? Our...

read more

Fed: Here’s What We’ll Be Watching Today …

Today is Fed day – as a reminder Roberto & Benson will be hosting a webinar TODAY at 2:15pm ET to discuss the Fed LIVE! Click Here to Register. In today’s morning meeting, macro salesperson Jay Glickson asked us how the Fed’s decision will impact our outlook – will 75bp vs 100bp matter? We...

read more

Top Stories