Semis No Longer The Biggest Risk For Auto Stocks In 2022 (The Cycle Is!)

While consumers are having trouble buying cars, investors have piled into car STOCKS! We believe this industry, among other higher-beta groups, are at risk of underperformance in 2022 as the expansion continues to mature and we shift into Phase 4 of the market cycle....

We Wouldn’t Bet On Rate Hikes In 2022

  Today's Report: While The Market Is Actively Increasing The Odds Of A...

Must-See Charts Of The Week! (October 18 Chartbook)

Welcome To This Week’s Chartbook! Click HERE For The Large-Cap Chartbook Must-See Charts Of The Week While a lot of focus this week will clearly be on earnings, we continue to hear investors ask the question … “what is the market pricing in for rates and inflation in...

The Road To Lower Bond Yields In 2022: Lower ISM Supplier Deliveries, Prices Paid & New Orders

Our view (Portfolio Strategy) is that in 2022, COVID will continue to fade (becoming part of everyday life), alleviating or helping to stabilize some of the supply-side issues at the same time PMIs decline due to the normal ebb and flow of the cycle. This will weigh...

This Isn’t Stagflation, But It Might Become “Slowflation”

  Outlook: Our base case is that there is a slowdown in 2022 and that...

Value Managers: Earnings Revisions Supply & Demand

We’re beginning to see EARNINGS EXPECTATIONs stagnate for a couple of months now after rising for most of the year – no surprise the market is stuck. If EPS expectations do not rise, P/E volatility becomes the market. Given all the macro cross-currents, we expect...

Calibrating Your Portfolio And Your Oven For A Regime Shift In ’22

The top question we’ve been getting over the past month is “when should we shift our portfolio attributes towards the Growth (#4) phase of the market cycle, and which factors should we be moving into?” We’ve maintained patience in making that call, as we’re not...

Avoid The Tails!

The tails of the market have been increasingly volatile! The highest P/E names and lowest P/E names are both getting whipped around. Why are we seeing such volatility in both value AND growth?!?! It all boils down to where we are in the cycle. We are in the quality...

Must-See Charts Of The Week! (October 11 Chartbook)

Welcome To This Week’s Chartbook! Click HERE For The Large-Cap Chartbook Must-See Charts Of The Week We are moving into the heart of 3Q earnings season (track earnings progress on our dashboard). So far 22 companies have reported with 72% beating EPS estimates....

The Market Has No Style!

While everyone seems to be focused on the style trade, it has been volatile and is essentially flat on the year! The style trade has not been a key driver of returns this year because we are in the Quality phase of the cycle where style takes a backseat.  Value works...

Must-See Charts Of The Week! (October 18 Chartbook)

Welcome To This Week’s Chartbook! Click HERE For The Large-Cap Chartbook Must-See Charts Of The Week While a lot of focus this week will clearly be on earnings, we continue to hear investors ask the question … “what is the market pricing in for rates and inflation in ’22?” We feel the best way to...

read more

Value Managers: Earnings Revisions Supply & Demand

We’re beginning to see EARNINGS EXPECTATIONs stagnate for a couple of months now after rising for most of the year – no surprise the market is stuck. If EPS expectations do not rise, P/E volatility becomes the market. Given all the macro cross-currents, we expect market volatility to continue into...

read more

Calibrating Your Portfolio And Your Oven For A Regime Shift In ’22

The top question we’ve been getting over the past month is “when should we shift our portfolio attributes towards the Growth (#4) phase of the market cycle, and which factors should we be moving into?” We’ve maintained patience in making that call, as we’re not expecting to be in Phase 4 until...

read more

Avoid The Tails!

The tails of the market have been increasingly volatile! The highest P/E names and lowest P/E names are both getting whipped around. Why are we seeing such volatility in both value AND growth?!?! It all boils down to where we are in the cycle. We are in the quality phase (i.e mid cycle) where...

read more

Must-See Charts Of The Week! (October 11 Chartbook)

Welcome To This Week’s Chartbook! Click HERE For The Large-Cap Chartbook Must-See Charts Of The Week We are moving into the heart of 3Q earnings season (track earnings progress on our dashboard). So far 22 companies have reported with 72% beating EPS estimates. Earnings estimate beats are on par...

read more

The Market Has No Style!

While everyone seems to be focused on the style trade, it has been volatile and is essentially flat on the year! The style trade has not been a key driver of returns this year because we are in the Quality phase of the cycle where style takes a backseat.  Value works earlier in a recovery and...

read more

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