Semis No Longer The Biggest Risk For Auto Stocks In 2022 (The Cycle Is!)

While consumers are having trouble buying cars, investors have piled into car STOCKS! We believe this industry, among other higher-beta groups, are at risk of underperformance in 2022 as the expansion continues to mature and we shift into Phase 4 of the market cycle....

We Wouldn’t Bet On Rate Hikes In 2022

  Today's Report: While The Market Is Actively Increasing The Odds Of A...

The Road To Lower Bond Yields In 2022: Lower ISM Supplier Deliveries, Prices Paid & New Orders

Our view (Portfolio Strategy) is that in 2022, COVID will continue to fade (becoming part of everyday life), alleviating or helping to stabilize some of the supply-side issues at the same time PMIs decline due to the normal ebb and flow of the cycle. This will weigh...

This Isn’t Stagflation, But It Might Become “Slowflation”

  Outlook: Our base case is that there is a slowdown in 2022 and that...

Value Managers: Earnings Revisions Supply & Demand

We’re beginning to see EARNINGS EXPECTATIONs stagnate for a couple of months now after rising for most of the year – no surprise the market is stuck. If EPS expectations do not rise, P/E volatility becomes the market. Given all the macro cross-currents, we expect...

Calibrating Your Portfolio And Your Oven For A Regime Shift In ’22

The top question we’ve been getting over the past month is “when should we shift our portfolio attributes towards the Growth (#4) phase of the market cycle, and which factors should we be moving into?” We’ve maintained patience in making that call, as we’re not...

Avoid The Tails!

The tails of the market have been increasingly volatile! The highest P/E names and lowest P/E names are both getting whipped around. Why are we seeing such volatility in both value AND growth?!?! It all boils down to where we are in the cycle. We are in the quality...

The Market Has No Style!

While everyone seems to be focused on the style trade, it has been volatile and is essentially flat on the year! The style trade has not been a key driver of returns this year because we are in the Quality phase of the cycle where style takes a backseat.  Value works...

Prelude To Next Year: Down In ’22

  It’s too soon to get all “beared up,” we still believe in 4601 for...

Stocks To Avoid In The Fourth Quarter

  t’s the 4th quarter … don’t let what happened to the Seahawks...

Value Managers: Earnings Revisions Supply & Demand

We’re beginning to see EARNINGS EXPECTATIONs stagnate for a couple of months now after rising for most of the year – no surprise the market is stuck. If EPS expectations do not rise, P/E volatility becomes the market. Given all the macro cross-currents, we expect market volatility to continue into...

read more

Avoid The Tails!

The tails of the market have been increasingly volatile! The highest P/E names and lowest P/E names are both getting whipped around. Why are we seeing such volatility in both value AND growth?!?! It all boils down to where we are in the cycle. We are in the quality phase (i.e mid cycle) where...

read more

The Market Has No Style!

While everyone seems to be focused on the style trade, it has been volatile and is essentially flat on the year! The style trade has not been a key driver of returns this year because we are in the Quality phase of the cycle where style takes a backseat.  Value works earlier in a recovery and...

read more

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