Semis No Longer The Biggest Risk For Auto Stocks In 2022 (The Cycle Is!)

While consumers are having trouble buying cars, investors have piled into car STOCKS! We believe this industry, among other higher-beta groups, are at risk of underperformance in 2022 as the expansion continues to mature and we shift into Phase 4 of the market cycle....

We Wouldn’t Bet On Rate Hikes In 2022

  Today's Report: While The Market Is Actively Increasing The Odds Of A...

Must-See Charts Of The Week! (October 18 Chartbook)

Welcome To This Week’s Chartbook! Click HERE For The Large-Cap Chartbook Must-See Charts Of The Week While a lot of focus this week will clearly be on earnings, we continue to hear investors ask the question … “what is the market pricing in for rates and inflation in...

The Road To Lower Bond Yields In 2022: Lower ISM Supplier Deliveries, Prices Paid & New Orders

Our view (Portfolio Strategy) is that in 2022, COVID will continue to fade (becoming part of everyday life), alleviating or helping to stabilize some of the supply-side issues at the same time PMIs decline due to the normal ebb and flow of the cycle. This will weigh...

This Isn’t Stagflation, But It Might Become “Slowflation”

  Outlook: Our base case is that there is a slowdown in 2022 and that...

Value Managers: Earnings Revisions Supply & Demand

We’re beginning to see EARNINGS EXPECTATIONs stagnate for a couple of months now after rising for most of the year – no surprise the market is stuck. If EPS expectations do not rise, P/E volatility becomes the market. Given all the macro cross-currents, we expect...

Calibrating Your Portfolio And Your Oven For A Regime Shift In ’22

The top question we’ve been getting over the past month is “when should we shift our portfolio attributes towards the Growth (#4) phase of the market cycle, and which factors should we be moving into?” We’ve maintained patience in making that call, as we’re not...

Avoid The Tails!

The tails of the market have been increasingly volatile! The highest P/E names and lowest P/E names are both getting whipped around. Why are we seeing such volatility in both value AND growth?!?! It all boils down to where we are in the cycle. We are in the quality...

Must-See Charts Of The Week! (October 11 Chartbook)

Welcome To This Week’s Chartbook! Click HERE For The Large-Cap Chartbook Must-See Charts Of The Week We are moving into the heart of 3Q earnings season (track earnings progress on our dashboard). So far 22 companies have reported with 72% beating EPS estimates....

The Market Has No Style!

While everyone seems to be focused on the style trade, it has been volatile and is essentially flat on the year! The style trade has not been a key driver of returns this year because we are in the Quality phase of the cycle where style takes a backseat.  Value works...

Must-See Charts Of The Week! (October 4 Chartbook)

Welcome To This Week’s Chartbook! Click HERE For The Large-Cap Chartbook Must-See Charts Of The Week We have entered the final quarter of ’21 and are about to kick off the next round of earnings. This earnings season is starting off with market breadth near one year lows. The weakness in overall...

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Strong ISM = Strong EPS Revisions, Buy Stocks With Rising EPS

Another STRONG ISM report … fitting perfectly in line with our models. ISM New Orders now above 60 for a 15th consecutive month! Buy these dips, don’t get defensive until 2022 when PMIs finally do ROLL OVER!! More PMIs charts are coming your way this weekend. Stick with stocks with improving EPS...

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Broken Record, Not A Broken Market!

A must-have attribute of your long positions – positive EPS revisions. Continue to shy away from being too one-sided in “macro” factors (i.e., beta, size, style, etc.) Send us your stocks or use our Factor Screener to find stocks seeing +EPS Revisions. Macro factors will make a comeback in...

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Must-See Charts Of The Week! (September 27 Chartbook)

Welcome To This Week’s Chartbook! Click HERE For The Large-Cap Chartbook; (mobile-friendly PDF) Must-See Charts Of The Week Last week’s volatile markets saw some risk factors (i.e. high beta & negative earnings) catch a bid along with companies with higher quality fundamentals (i.e. earnings...

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15 Rate-Sensitive Stocks To Avoid … Even If Rates Rise!

We don’t think there is much upside to 10-year interest rates, and these 15 stocks are have the greatest downside risk ... even if rates rise. We’ve flagged a handful of stocks that are at RISK if rates fail to move higher over the next 12 months. Whether interest rates move higher or not, this...

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Housing Has Rolled Over … What’s Next?

Housing Has Rolled Over … What’s Next?  Housing in the US has peaked and is now slowing Housing trends are early cycle and can offer insight into what to expect for the broader economy in the quarters to come The timing of this housing slowdown gives us conviction in an H1 2022 PMI slowdown...

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Must-See Charts Of The Week! (September 20 Chartbook)

Welcome To This Week’s Chartbook! Click HERE For The Large-Cap Chartbook; (mobile-friendly PDF) Must-See Charts Of The Week We continue to hear from a lot of investors concerned of a potential slowdown in 2022 and wondering if they should start positioning for it now. Markets typically don’t...

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