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Aneta Markowska highlights while lower rates are a big tailwind for housing it’s a modest one at best for consumption. Rates would have to drop significantly from here to cause another big refi cycle. #economics #rates #housing
More concerning is the weak services PMI. when services falls below 50 recession is already here.
Markit PMI breaks 50! ISM next would make 13-for-13 post-fed tightening cycle PMI recessions.
While defense is expensive, Michael Kantrowitz believes it is worth paying that premium today as he expects growth to continue to slow into 2020. Regardless of valuation, defense stocks do best in exactly this type of backdrop. #stocks #growthslowing #defense
Jan Stuart lowered his 2019 crude oil forecast due to weaker demand and higher inventories. On the demand side, Q2 was the worst yet, as things did not improve with the June data. #oil #energy