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Yes, 459k of the 701k March payroll loss was in leisure/hospitality, but most sectors suffered, with the employment diffusion index falling to 36. The Covid-19 recession may have started in 1Q, with a 25% q/q a.r. 2Q downturn on track. #economics #unemployment #recession #covid19
#MorningTradeLive ➡️ @csm_research’s Nancy Lazar reacts to the record jobs number this morning
Payrolls weaker than expected as the cutoff did capture the initial phase of the hit. Today’s print is a glimmer of how bad April could potentially be as UCs suggest a drop of 20M. The decline in hours worked increase the odds Q1 GDP will also be negative. #economics #payroll
TODAY on #MorningTradeLive:
🔹 @csm_research’s Nancy Lazar’s jobs reaction
🔹 @vaneck_us’ John Patrick Lee talks e-sports, video games
🔹 @Djd551’s $TWTR example trade
🔹 AlphaSimplex Group’s Katy Kaminsky on crisis alpha
🔹 @sprucepointcap’s Ben Axler talks $WDFC
More great work by @jbensondurham here at @csm_research. Treasuries hedging power is never great, but is especially bad when you need it the most, i.e., when equities drop fast. There is lots of uncertainty about Treasuries return in that case, much more than when stocks do well.