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Nancy Lazar highlights the recent rebound in our daily consumer confidence measure suggests some upside to holiday sales despite otherwise sluggish fundamentals. Overall, spending is in a slowing trend that we expect to continue into 2020. #economics #consumer

Wonder why the USD remains resilient?? China’s investment bubble continues to deflate. That’s all you need for a secular bullish #USD story (inverted in chart). China’s pain is America’s gain. $DXY $UUP. The USD probably doesn’t weaken much in 2020. This story has plenty of legs

In our base-case scenario, if a progressive is elected president, global oil prices would increase $35 per barrel and US GDP would be 0.5% lower five years later. We project an outright ban on fracking would send oil prices to $150 per barrel and likely produce a US recession.

Nancy Lazar highlights that the U.S. Energy Renaissance is insulating the U.S. economy from geopolitical concerns, weighing on inflation, and creating a more diverse economy. #economics #energy

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