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We saw important bright spots in Jan’s IP report. Vehicle production rose 6.4% m/m (slated to grow 23.9% q/q a.r. in 1Q). Tech IP rose 0.8% m/m (8.9% y/y), with semis jumping 1.6% m/m. We talked tech in today’s video…and watch for our deep dive on Tuesday. #economics #tech
Andy thinks it’s underappreciated how Bernie Sanders polls much better with minorities than he did the last election, which will play favorably for him in the more diverse primaries in SC and NV compared to IA and NH. #Democrats2020 #Election2020
Judy Shelton didn't do a particularly good job at her hearing today, but if the #WhiteHouse indeed pulls her, chalk it up to Powell's ability to forge relationships in the #Senate, on both sides. "Creative" nominees to the #FederalReserve would be 0-3.
Jim Bianco on Twitter
“Republicans expect Trump to withdraw controversial Fed nominee | TheHill https://t.co/hpiRFtUAEd”
If China’s factories remain closed beyond Feb, the US GDP hit would be ~25 bps per month starting in Mar and probably grow exponentially thereafter. The Global Value Chain can probably withstand up to a month of Chinese production outages, given the inventory buffers. #economics
The Super Tuesday implied move over time (blue) vs Bernie’s PredictIt Odds (red). This moved higher as Bernie surged in late January, but has now declined to 1.16% after the New Hampshire primary.